000
AXNT20 KNHC 101804
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. THE 
MIMIC TPW ANIMATION CLEARLY SHOWS A LARGE DRY SURGE...ASSOCIATED 
AT LEAST IN PART WITH SAHARAN DUST...QUICKLY SPREADING WWD TO 
ABOUT 57W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  MUCH 
OF THIS WAVE IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA WITH VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE 
APPARENT IN ANY OF THE AVAILABLE DATA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N30W 4N40W 4N51W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 16W-37W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 43W-47W.    

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N90W.  10-15 KT 
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE E SIDE OF A RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING NWLY WINDS OVER THE GULF.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE NE 
TO S GEORGIA IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW TO 
PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS WITHIN 24 HOURS.  
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITHIN 24 HOURS.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER WAVE IS 
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  SEE ABOVE.  A 1009 MB LOW IS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW 
COLOMBIA NEAR 6N76W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS 
NEAR 17N82W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
9N-18N BETWEEN 72W-84W.  EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE W TO THE COAST 
OF COSTA RICA WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT THE 
TWO TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W AT 15 KT.      

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N69W 
28N74W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT.  THE 
TAIL END OF ANOTHER FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 
32N52W 25N60W.  A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SW TO A 1011 MB LOW N 
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N41W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 31N17W 23N22W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 
25N BETWEEN 30W-60W WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 16N44W.
A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W.  ZONAL FLOW 
IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC S OF 20N AND E OF 30W.    

$$
FORMOSA