000 AXNT20 KNHC 081102 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 08 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 7N18W 8N34W 7N43W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 26W-37W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 30W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF A LINE FROM 4N20W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 7N11W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 3N FROM 29W-37W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERED THE E US AND THE GULF IS PUSHING E OVER THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 93W. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 TO 110 KT EXTENDING ACROSS E TEXAS/LOUISIANA TO OVER S/CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE E GULF BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E US NOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY NW TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT IN THE W GULF. DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH SOME MOIST UPPER TROPICAL AIR BEING FUNNELED ACROSS MEXICO ALONG TO THE COAST BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND E TEXAS. THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING AS THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N82W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W BUT DUE TO THE DRY STABLE AIR IN PLACE THERE IS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W ALONG 15N76W TO OFF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF 77W AND MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA NE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK 1007 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA/PANAMA NEAR 10N77W AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT RUNS ACROSS N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY S OF 14N W OF 71W TO INLAND CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N63W TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US AND AND THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PUSH E EXTENDING OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 27N65W SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N69W. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N68W SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N82W AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE FLORIDA COAST. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 26N73W TO NEAR 29N61W. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N50W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N FROM 53W-64W. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE REGION AND A 1008 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N30W AND A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW ALONG 30N25W 23N35W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 12N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH N OF 28N FROM 20W-25W AND S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 8N BETWEEN 40W-48W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. $$ WALLACE