000 AXNT20 KNHC 072344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED NOV 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT STILL SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE. THE WAVE COUPLE WITH THE ITCZ AXIS IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N30W 5N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-42W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING S THROUGH THE GULF...WITH A NARROW BAND OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN SOUTH FLORIDA/FLORIDA KEYS AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. WINDS ARE PICKING UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE WINDS. MOSTLY 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TABASCO IN MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE S AND WEAKEN FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BRINGING A VERY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. A JET STREAM BRANCH...WITH CORE WINDS OF 70-90 KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH CROSSING SE LOUISIANA...FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS INTO THE W ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SFC TROUGH...REMNANT OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE NE TIP OF HONDURAS. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 79W-84W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NE GULF. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA...INCLUDING THE LAKE MARACAIBO AND N COLOMBIA. SWLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLOMBIAN OR PANAMANIAN LOW...ANALYZED 1007 MB NEAR 9N77W. THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ASIDE FROM A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS. ALOFT...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING CENTRAL CUBA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE BASIN...PARTICULARLY THE EASTERN PORTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 07/2100 UTC A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N72W THEN CONTINUES SW THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY CHARACTERIZED BY A THIN LINE OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS BETWEEN SE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AS STATIONARY NEAR 31N56W SW TO 25N70W...THEN CONTINUES AS A TROUGH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. AS PREDICTED BY THE GFS MODEL...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR 25N70W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GETTING SUPPORT BY AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. THESE SFC FEATURES PAIRED WITH UPPER SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE GENERATING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 55W-65W. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS HAS MOVED EWD AND NOW IS NEAR 17N49W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN 38W-49W. A 1006 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 445 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. A TRAILING TROUGH IS ALONG 30N27W 20N36W 14N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAINLY N OF 23N E OF 30W. MODERATE SFC RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC AREA. ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA. $$ GR