000 AXNT20 KNHC 071804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED NOV 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO...AS IT APPEARS AS IF MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE MORE BAROCLINIC TYPE OF SYSTEM FURTHER N. THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT DOES SHOWS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WELL OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY NEAR THE WAVE REMAINS MINIMAL. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N30W 6N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-41W...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY PUSHING S THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A THIN LINE OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN SW FLORIDA AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO REVEALED A SURGE OF 20 KT NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. MOSTLY 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT STRONGER NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE ONLY OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIP NOTED ACROSS THE GULF IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN THE AREA S OF 22N. NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED WITH DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IN PLACE AND UPPER NW FLOW. N/NE SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A REMNANT...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE NE TIP OF HONDURAS. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE TROUGH...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY OTHER ACTIVITY OVER THE CARIB IS ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND A FEW CELLS NOTED NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH. OTHERWISE THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ASIDE FROM A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING OFFSHORE AND THROUGH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS OF 07/1500 UTC EXTENDS SW FROM NEAR 32N73W TO NEAR PALM BEACH FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY CHARACTERIZED BY A THIN LINE OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING DATA HAS BEEN DEPICTING SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. NLY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL ALLOW STEEP NLY WIND WAVES TO RAPIDLY BUILD OFFSHORE FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AS STATIONARY NEAR 32N55W SW TO 27N68W...THEN CONTINUES AS A TROUGH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH LATER TODAY AND MOVE NE OF THE AREA BY LATE THU. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GETTING SUPPORT BY AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER AND SFC FEATURES IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 17N50W...WHICH IS GENERATING MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 37W-51W. A 1006 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW IS NEAR 21N33W. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED. A TRAILING TROUGH IS ALONG 30N27W 21N33W 13N44W. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS N OF 23N...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 21W-30W. MODERATE SFC RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC AREA. $$ WILLIS