000 AXNT20 KNHC 071041 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 4N30W 5N47W 4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 26W-32W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 28W-40W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 27W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC N OF 20N. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 90 KT EXTENDING ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TO OVER S/CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH S OVER THE GULF BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA TO INLAND OVER BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE GULF WITH SOME MOIST TROPICAL AIR BEING FUNNELED ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THUS MOST OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH S BUT THE W PORTION HAS ALREADY BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY AND WILL WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT EXITING THE GULF LAT TONIGHT INTO THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A REMNANT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT PERSISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 79W-85W AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEAK 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N76W AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT RUNS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 75W TO INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA AND S OF 13N FROM 67W-75W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W ATLC TO THE MONA PASSAGE GENERATING SOME LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N FROM 64W-73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US AND AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A LEADING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32W55W SW TO 27N69W THEN S OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SECOND BOUNDARY...COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 30N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A JET STREAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 TO 90 KT EXTENDS ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 26N74W TO NEAR 27N65W. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N50W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N FROM 62W-69W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 55W-65W. DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 31N35W AND THE 1004 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N36W. AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE REGION WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 32N23W S TO 29N23W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N27W ALONG 20N35W TO 14N48W AND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW ALONG 28N32W TO 25N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW N OF 30N FROM 26W-34W WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM 22N31W TO BEYOND 32N22W. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N53W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO E PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 37W-48W. $$ WALLACE