000 AXNT20 KNHC 031039 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT NOV 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD AREA OF SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 3N-15N BETWEEN 30W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG TILTED FROM 9N47W TO 20N49W BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 43W AND THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 8N22W 11N35W 9N41W 10N51W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 4N11W TO 8N15W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 24W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 9N36W TO 6N42W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALSO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC WHICH IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY...THUS THE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. MODERATE/STRONG N TO NE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS E GULF THROUGH TODAY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE DURING THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N81W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 21N90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR HAVE PUSHED S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LIMITING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TO ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE BRINGING STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND SW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 16N78W TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 19N75W 18N80W TO OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-74W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED THE REMNANTS OF NOEL FURTHER N OF THE REGION LEAVING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE COVERING THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM BERMUDA SSW TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR N ATLC E OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DRAPES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE REMNANTS OF NOEL INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N74W ALONG 30N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N78W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND STRONG N TO NE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N. THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 25N72W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA NEAR 21N76W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N74W ALONG 27N68W TO BEYOND 32N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 28N46W ALONG 20N53W TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 50W-57W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NW OF THE AZORES AND EXTENDING A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N28W TO 29N37W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION AND IS BEGINNING TO BRIDGE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS STRONG SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NOEL ARE PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 45W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE TROPICS EXTENDING ALONG 8N/9N TO 44W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. $$ WALLACE