000 AXNT20 KNHC 022342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE NOEL IS PULLING NE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA AND IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT 02/2100 UTC THE CENTER OF NOEL...THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2007 TROPICAL SEASON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH.. LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR ABOUT 390 NM...725 KM...WEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 280 NM...510 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NE AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUST TO 85 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NOEL IS MAKING THE TRANSITION TO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOW INSUFFICIENT TO QUALIFY NOEL AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THUS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM AT 2100 UTC. HOWEVER...THE MARINE THREAT OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL NOT END. STRONG WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OFFSHORE THE SE AND MID ATLC COAST THROUGH SAT...AND FOR THE WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS CLEARLY THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THIS SYSTEM STILL SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND VORTICITY. ALSO...THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM DEPICTS VERY WELL THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 26W-31W. ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS 45W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC DATA INDICATE THAT THE WAVE JUST PASSED BUOY 41014. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 41W-47W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 8N28W 7N41W 7N50W 7N62W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 200 NM S OF AXIS EAST OF 30W...AND WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-24W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. AT OF 2100 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF CROSSING N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UW-CIMMS TPW PRODUCT SHOWS VERY WELL THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A VERY DRY AIR MASS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SUPPORTS THE FRONT WHILE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA. MODERATE TO FRESH N/NE SFC WINDS CONTINUES TO BLOW ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND HURRICANE NOEL. VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS ALSO NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF IN WV IMAGERY...WITH THE FLOW MORE OR LESS ZONAL. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE GULF THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NE FLOW WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EXCEPT LIGHTER OVER THE NW PORTION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR SE MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE ALREADY FLOODED PARTS OF TABASCO AND SURROUNDING MEXICAN AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PATCHES OF LOW LEVELS CLOUDS AFFECTING THE STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TABASCO. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. . CARIBBEAN SEA... SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACES OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1007 MB...HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG UPPER ELY WINDS OVER THE AREA. LITTLE MOTION OR A WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRAILING SFC TROUGH FROM NOEL. LIGHTNING DATA IS DEPICTING SCATTERED TSTMS OVER NE HONDURAS AND PARTS OF NICARAGUA AS WELL AS OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE E TRADES WITH ISOLATED... MOSTLY SHALLOW...SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CARIB IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER HIGH. COOL/DRY AIR IS ALSO INVADING WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE NOEL REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IN THE W ATLC... SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL'S EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH NLY WINDS AND LARGE N/NE SWELLS ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE DYING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N30W 25N53W 31N70W...WHICH IS GETTING SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH N OF 21N BETWEEN 46W-54W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 34W-46W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME POTENTIAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 35W. TRADES ARE MOSTLY MODERATE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC AREA WITH MODERATE SFC RIDGING IN PLACE. $$ GR