000 AXNT20 KNHC 021030 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 28.4N 75.2W AT 02/0900 UTC MOVING NNE AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAIN WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUST TO 85 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLOUDS TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...THUS CONVECTION IS NOT AS DEEP AS 6 HOURS AGO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 70W-77W. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N78W ACROSS JAMAICA OVER CUBA NEAR 21N76W THEN NARROWING TO WITHIN 60/75 NM TO THE E OF NOEL NEAR 27N72W. DRY UPPER AIR IS TO THE W OF NOEL AND BEGINNING TO UNDERCUT THE SYSTEM LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE S AND W. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATE TO THE NE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD AREA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 20W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 39W-44W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 8N25W 6N30W 6N40W 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 11W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 5N FROM 16W-20W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC CLIPPING THE GULF FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA ALONG 30N TO ACROSS S LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RAPIDLY E AND SLOWLY TO THE S INTO THE GULF. MODERATE/STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF BUT THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS NOEL RAPIDLY MOVES NE. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW GULF AND AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 24N W OF 91W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPRESSING SHOWER ACTIVITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE W CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVATE THIS MORNING DUE TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE NOEL. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF NOEL OVER CUBA NEAR 21N77W S ALONG 17N79W TO 11N81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 10N71W ALONG 14N80W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 18N88W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE NOEL REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IN THE W ATLC...SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOEL ARE OVER THE FAR W ATLC FROM CUBA TO 33N BETWEEN 78W-81W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH MOST ARE OFFSHORE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N78W THEN W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N FROM 30W-60W WITH AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW TO 25N45W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING A WEAK JET STREAM WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 50 TO 70 KT AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OF NOEL IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W AND COUPLED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING THE E ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N55W COVERING THE AREA S OF 19N FROM 46W-60W WITH AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 7N/8N TO 45W. $$ WALLACE