000 AXNT20 KNHC 020008 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS HURRICANE NOEL AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS. AT 02/0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF RECENTLY-UPGRADED HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 100 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 700 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. NOEL HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ARE NEAR 65 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE THE NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. WHILE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM FLORIDA...THE MARINE THREAT WILL NOT END. STRONG N WINDS AND LARGE NE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS NOEL BECOMES AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NW ATLC AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N25W 6N38W 7N43W 3N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 22W-30W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NEAR 5N20W. A TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 41W FROM 5N-16N...THAT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED DAKAR AROUND 12Z OCT 27. CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM SHOWS UP WELL IN LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND VORTICITY...AND THE UW CIMSS TPW PRODUCT THAT DEPICTS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING WWD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ADDED TO THE 0000 UTC SFC MAP. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG N TO NE WINDS CONTINUES TO BLOW ACROSS THE E GULF THANKS TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM NOEL AND STRONG HIGH PRES TO ITS NORTH. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/STRAITS INTO WESTERN CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND NOEL. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY THINS OUT EVEN FURTHER AS IT TRAVERSES INTO THE GULF. ALOFT...THE FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL TO THE N OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/NE GULF. NOEL IS ACCELERATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS WIDESPREAD DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS EARLY FRI REACHING THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF EARLY SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA REVEAL LINES OF SHOWERS MOVING EWD OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. CONVECTION IS FLARED UP THIS EVENING OVER JAMAICA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALL THIS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING TROUGH HANGING SWD FROM TROPICAL STORM NOEL...A DEEP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF NOEL AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT RELATED TO AN UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AIR DRIES OUT SOME TO OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN DRIVEN BY FRESH NWLY WINDS. THE E CARIB IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNDER MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW AND DRIER MID/UPPER AIR ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BY NLY WINDS BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW E OF THE AREA AND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM NOEL REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE ATLC WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. FOR STORM SPECIFICS SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND FIELD DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL...THE TIGHT PRES PATTERN SET UP BETWEEN THE TROPICAL STORM AND STRONG HIGH PRES NE OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONALLY TO GALE FORCE W OF 70W...AND LARGE SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE WRN ATLC. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS NOEL TRANSITIONS TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 72W-77W. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N36W THEN CONTINUES W AND NW ALONG 26N50W 28N65W 31N78W. A 150-200 NM BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 50W IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N54W IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 50W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS FAIRLY QUIET UNDER MODERATE SFC RIDGING AND AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN. $$ GR