000 AXNT20 KNHC 010002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL DRIFTED WESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND MIDDAY...BUT RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. NOEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS ON THU BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HRS. AT 01/0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 NM...260 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 200 NM...370 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS JUST NE OF THE CENTER AFFECTING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. RAINS IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SE FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE CITY OF MIAMI. AT 31/2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FROM SE FLORIDA NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 18N MOVING SLOWLY WWD. THE WAVE STILL SHOWS UP IN THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT AND 850 MB SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY. THIS FEATURE IS PROBABLY GENERATING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER LAKE MARACAIBO IN WESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N25W 6N42W 4N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 15W-25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF AXIS NEAR 6N44W AND OVER FRENCH GUIANA. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF TAMPA BAY AND THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE ADVANCING TOWARD THE NOEL AND ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. UPPER DRY AIR WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLC OCEAN COMBINED WITH TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS PRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION RELATED TO T.S. NOEL IS NE OF CENTER...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS... ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF NOEL...ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE SE GULF INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE EFFECTS OF T.S. NOEL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN. DEEP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW E OF NOEL IS PRODUCING POCKETS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVING INTO JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE GETTING SOME SUPPORT BY AN UPPER COL REGION BETWEEN ANTICYCLONES OVER THE E AND W PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NOEL TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. UPPER NELY WINDS AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISRUPTED OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE TROUGHING S OF T.S. NOEL. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM NOEL THAT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. NOEL IS INTERACTING WITH STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC OCEAN AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 28N/29N OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND LARGE SEAS UP TO 18 FT OVER MUCH OF THE WRN ATLC. A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT N OF 23N W OF 65W. A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PULLS FATHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NOEL EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 31N W OF 57W PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW MOSTLY NE OF NOEL. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE W ATLC. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N52W PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 47W-53W. AN E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF AFRICA ALONG 9N/10N TO 40W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 24W BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GENERATING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS MOSTLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE WITH TYPICAL PATCHES OF STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. TRADES ARE MOSTLY MODERATE OVER THE AREA S OF 25N E OF 60W...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER NE WINDS NOTED JUST OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN THE CANARY/CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ GR