000 AXNT20 KNHC 311207 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 78.2W AT 31/1200 UTC ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAYO COCO CUBA OR ABOUT 195 NM SSW OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS MOVING NNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE W ATLC LATER TODAY BUT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE NEIGHBORING ISLANDS ONLY SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT BEGINS ITS MOVE MORE TO THE NE. UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT REMAINS JUST TO THE W OF THE CENTER KEEPING THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE N AND E OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E CUBA E OF AND INCLUDING HOLGUIN AND GRANMA PROVIDENCES...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 72W-78W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE CARIBBEAN E OF NOEL WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PORTION OF THE W ATLC S OF 26N BETWEEN 67W-78W. NOEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR RAIN MAKER TODAY FOR E CUBA AND MOST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND COULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ILL-DEFINED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL BUT IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT MOVES INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AWAY FROM NOEL. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N25W 11N46W 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 10W-15W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 15W-35W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF TAMPA NEAR 28N83W AND DISSIPATES OVER THE GULF ALONG 27N88W TO NEAR 23N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONT W OF 89W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER SW TO NEAR 25N92W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED N OF THE REGION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS PRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ABOVE 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NOEL ARE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE E GULF S OF 28N E OF 86W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE EFFECTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO TROPICAL STORM NOEL...SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA SW ALONG 14N79W TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN W OF 80W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NOEL COVER MOST OF THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 77W-85W. UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N51W TO 30N62W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL AND DISSIPATES INT HE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NOEL EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 31N W OF 57W PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW MOSTLY NE OF THE NOEL. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM NOEL AND THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF NOEL W OF 70W WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N52W COVERING THE AREA FROM 9N-22N BETWEEN 45W-57W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS 150 NM OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE N EXTENDING FROM 32N43W SW TO 26N52W. AN E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF AFRICA ALONG 9N/10N TO 40W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 23W-42W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 16N E OF 26W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING S TO 20N E OF 40W ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE AREA RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING. $$ WALLACE