000 AXNT20 KNHC 310002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... NOEL IS DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. AT 01/0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 20 NM...40 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 240 NM...440 KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. NOEL HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER CUBA OVERNIGHT... BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ON WEDNESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM EMERGES BACK OVER WATER NORTH OF CUBA. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA INDICATE THAT CENTER OF NOEL REMAINS INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA. HOWEVER... RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND ARE SPREADING INTO THE BAHAMAS. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF NOEL OVER LAS TUNAS. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THREAT...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NOEL...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLC STATES... AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA IS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY ENE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING QUICK PASSING SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE STILL SHOWS UP IN THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT AND 850 MB SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY. HOWEVER...THE WAVE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE DROPPED SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/ENERGY MOVES NW WITH SE FLOW BEHIND OF T.S. NOEL...AND POSSIBLY GETS ABSORBED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE WAVE ITSELF IS PROBABLY GENERATING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 8N28W 7N35W 5N45W 3N56W. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS WITHIN AROUND 200 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-40W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA W ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...GENERALLY ALONG 28N81W 25N90W 18N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MAINLY WITHIN 80 NM AHEAD OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT N OF THE YUCATAN. THE FRONT REMAINS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A RAGGED BAND OF BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE WESTERN GULF. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN A SFC HIGH OVER THE MID ATLC STATES AND T.S. NOEL WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALOFT...FLOW IS FAIRLY UNIFORM SW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING THE COAST OF TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM NOEL REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KT AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER EASTERN CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL STORM THAT HAS SPENT THE DAY OVER THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. TROUGHING S OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. DEEP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW E OF NOEL IS PRODUCING POCKETS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO HISPANIOLA. LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE GETTING SOME SUPPORT BY AN UPPER COL REGION BETWEEN ANTICYCLONES OVER THE E AND W PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISRUPTED OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE TROUGHING S OF T.S. NOEL. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM NOEL OVER CUBA. NOEL IS INTERACTING WITH STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLC STATES AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHICH IS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE WRN ATLC. SEE DETAILS ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL ARE MAINLY S OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-78W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND COASTAL WATERS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF ERN CUBA...AND RIDGING EXTENDING N INTO THE ATLC FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N52W 24N56W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 18N52W IS GENERATING HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 40W-50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS MOSTLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE WITH TYPICAL PATCHES OF STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. TRADES ARE MOSTLY MODERATE OVER THE AREA S OF 25N E OF 60W...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER NE WINDS NOTED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NW AFRICA IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GENERATING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. $$ GR