000 AXNT20 KNHC 300555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 75.6W AT 30/0600 UTC NEAR OR OVER PUNTA LUCRECIA ON THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA OR 250 NM SSE OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NOEL REMAINS ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT IS WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM CUBA THE CENTER IS FAIRLY ACCURATELY LOCATED. CONVECTION REMAINS MORE ELONGATED WITH CLUSTERS STREAMING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE N QUADRANT. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N72W OVER HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 20N71W. OUTER RAINBANDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE STORM WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 21N65W 25N67W TO 26N72W. NOEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR RAIN MAKER AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE S BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO T.S. NOEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N FROM 57W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 7N29W 3N46W 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 19W-44W AND AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 24W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 52W-59W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 30/0300 UTC A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF N OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W ALONG 26N91W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W BASED ON DEW POINT DIFFERENCE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH A DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE GULF WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONT N OF A LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N87W. LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED N OF THE REGION OVER THE VIRGINIA AND THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS PRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ABOVE 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. THE SE GULF IS MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. CARIBBEAN SEA... ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS NOW N OF CUBA THE EFFECTS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUE TO BE CONCERN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA. THESE HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS E CUBA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE EFFECTS AS THE STORM MOVES WNW. HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 64W-68W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF NOEL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA NEAR 19N76W JUST E OF JAMAICA ALONG 15N78W TO 12N82W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NE US AND E CANADA INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N62W JUST S OF BERMUDA TO 30N73W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. NOEL EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 30N FROM 60W-76W PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW MOSTLY NE OF THE SYSTEM. A DRY SLOT IS JUST TO THE NE OF NOEL LIMITING CONVECTION. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN T.S. NOEL AND THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE SE US COAST AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N44W ALONG 24N51W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 19N52W TO NEAR 14N52W. A SWATH OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS COVERING THE AREA FROM 16N-32N BETWEEN 52W-60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DRY STABLE AIR THROUGH 32N50W SW TO 23N60W. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 20N40W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N30W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 19N48W TO BEYOND 32N40W. THE E ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 25W AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING S TO 18N E OF 50W ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE