000 AXNT20 KNHC 291805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.9N 73.0W AT 29/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 300 MILES...500 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MOVING NNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E AND N OF THE CENTER. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS GETTING THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 67W-72W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SURGE TYPE APPEARANCE AS THE CURVATURE BROADENS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 57W-60W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N25W 5N35W 6N50W 9N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 20W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 51W-56W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N81W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N90W 22N92W 18N93W. THE FRONT IS DRIFTING S OVER FLORIDA...AND IS DRIFTING N OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE TIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF THUS A GALE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS NELY WINDS AT 20-25 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND E GULF E OF THE LINE 30N86W 20N96W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...NAMELY THE NW GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. NOEL IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER W...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM S OF JAMAICA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 17N78W 9N82W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 75W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N74W. EXPECT THE STORM TO SLOWLY MOVE NNW OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N45W 24N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 40W-49W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO 27N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N74W. A TROUGH IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 45W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N29W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 19N20W. $$ FORMOSA