000 AXNT20 KNHC 290604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 72.3W AT 29/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 80 NM SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MOVING NNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW LEVEL CENTER OF NOEL IS LOCATED NEAR THE SW EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 69W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 64W-73W. NOEL COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SURGE TYPE APPEARANCE WITH SLIGHT CURVATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 50W-58W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 8N23W 4N39W 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 33W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 18W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 22W-50W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ACROSS SARASOTA FLORIDA ALONG 24N88W TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N FROM 85W-93W. THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL US IS PRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS W OF THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF AND SEA HEIGHTS ABOVE 8 FT. THE SE GULF IS RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF 93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN. FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES ARE A HIGH CONCERN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W AFFECTING SE CUBA AND JAMAICA AS THE STORMS MOVES NNW. ELSEWHERE...A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 21N86W 16N83W TO NEAR 10N81W AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A LOW/MID LEVEL SWIRL IS OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 10N81W AT THE S END OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN COMPLIMENTS OF NOEL BETWEEN 63W-79W KEEPING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ACTIVE TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVERS THE E US INTO THE W ATLC DRAPING A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 32N75W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. NOEL EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC S OF 26N FROM 60W-76W PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW N OF THE SYSTEM. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 55W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE SE COAST AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N50W AND 1011 MB SURFACE LOW. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDING THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 28N53W TO 25N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE NE TO BEYOND 32N30W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 19N54W TO 32N38W. THE E ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL UNDER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES COVERING THE E ATLC N OF 17N E OF 40W. $$ WALLACE