000 AXNT20 KNHC 270525 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N38.5W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY ATTRIBUTE ANY SPECIFIC AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THIS WAVE ALONE. PRECIPITATION IS JUST NORTH OF THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA... AND IN BETWEEN 80W AND THE EASTERN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 8N13W IN SIERRA LEONE TO 5N24W TO 6N36W 5N43W INTO FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME NEAR 4N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N11W 4N24W 1N35W 2N41W 6N47W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THIS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF GEORGIA/THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF ALABAMA. A WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD/NORTHWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS TO FLORIDA DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS NOW EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEYOND THE DAYTONA BEACH AREA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N80W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS... BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 77W AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WEST OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO PRECIPITATION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/ FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM PANAMA TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO A LOCATION ABOUT 90 NM WEST OF THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 120 NM SOUTH OF PANAMA. A THIRD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 20N63W TO A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N69W TO 13N75W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W APPEARING TO REACH FROM SAINT VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES TO SAINT LUCIA. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W... FROM 16N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W POSSIBLY/PROBABLY REACHING SAINT CROIX...AND IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY ATTRIBUTE ANY SPECIFIC AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THIS WAVE ALONE. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W JUST NORTH OF THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA IS IN AN AREA OF BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON TOP OF IT...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WARM FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...NORTHWESTWARD TO 25N70W AND BEYOND 32N73W. IS OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 32N80W TO BIMINI NEAR 28N80W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH/1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA WARM FRONT. A COMPARATIVELY NEWER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH 32N47W TO 26N51W. THIS TROUGH IS NEWER IN THE SENSE THAT IT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF 32N AFTER THE ALREADY-ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO THE EAST OF IT. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 25N47W TO 16N53W AND 14N54W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 30N45W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N45W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N48W TO 25N50W AND 23N53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 14N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 9N30W BEYOND 32N30W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 16N20W INTO SOUTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 23N15W BEYOND 32N6W IN NORTHERN MOROCCO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N40W 26N31W BEYOND 32N26W. $$ MT