000 AXNT20 KNHC 261023 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 31W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ALONG 46W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN E/W UPPER RIDGE WITH NO TRUE INVERTED-V SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY SIGNATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N828 7N52W 7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 4N E OF 18W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 25W-39W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS JUST OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA ACROSS W CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC IS BEGINNING TO MOVE WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STREAM N ACROSS CUBA TO 25N E OF 84W OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE GULF WITH DRY STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR W OF 85W AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 24N87W WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE GULF E OF 95W. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR W OF 94W FROM TEXAS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... SMALL UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W COVERING THE AREA FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 80W-86W. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR HAVANA OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 80W-85W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N78W TO NEAR 19N82W. SMALL UPPER LOW IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO COVERING THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N66W AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N E OF 71W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE ITCZ AXIS CROSSES SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA... COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N79W ALONG ALONG OFF E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM PALM BEACH TO MIAMI THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA NEAR HAVANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO BEYOND 32N77W TO INLAND OVER SE US AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A NARROW UPPER RIDGE E OF THE FRONT ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N76W N TO BEYOND 32N76W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SWATH OF DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 21N70W TO 30N70W THEN JUST E OF BERMUDA BEYOND 32N67W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N FROM 55W-75W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH N OF BERMUDA. THE SMALL UPPER LOW IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N65W WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 55W-71W INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 30N43W COVERING THE AREA N OF 19N FROM 37W-65W WITH A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N43W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 25N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 45W-50W. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 10W/11N E OF 45W WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG 27W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM 18N44W TO 30N35W AND N OF 30N FROM 29W-39W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS DIGGING S OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 20N COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC WITH A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES. $$ WALLACE