000 AXNT20 KNHC 250514 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS MOVEMENT. THIS WAVE IS SHOWS A MID LEVEL FEATURE WITH LITTLE INDICATION ON THE SURFACE. ANY CONVECTION IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED 12 HOURS AGO BY 8 DEGREES AND IS NOW ALONG 41W/42W S OF 13N MOVING NEAR 15 KT. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT BASED ON PAST 12 HOURS MOVEMENT. WAVE HAS BEEN WEAK AND IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY SIGNATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 10N24W 7N34W 7N49W 8N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 24W-33W AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 33W-45W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 2W-23W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE GULF EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE ACROSS THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND W CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF A LINE FROM JUST S OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N84W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO THE GULF AND A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF 26N88W N OVER GEORGIA/ALABAMA. DRY STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH E OVER THE GULF WITH BROKEN/ OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT WITH CLEAR SKIES W OF 95W FROM TEXAS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... VERY SMALL UPPER LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W COVERING THE AREA S OF 19N W OF 84W. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR HAVANA TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW VENEZUELA NW ALONG 16N75W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N81W OVER CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO E OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 17N83W. THE ITCZ AXIS CROSSES THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING OFF THE COAST NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA S OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A NARROW UPPER RIDGE E OF THE FRONT ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N79W N TO NEAR 33N77W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 75W AND BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS W OF 76W INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE REGION COVERING THE AREA N OF 26N FROM 50W-70W WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N59W. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N59W COVERING THE AREA FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 55W-63W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 56W-65W WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 19N61W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE E.CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N43W COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N FROM 30W-50W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N33W ALONG 27N34W TO 21N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA N OF 19N BETWEEN 26W-41W. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 11N E OF 35W WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG 25W TO 33N COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 26N21W. $$ WALLACE