000 AXNT20 KNHC 242352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 24W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL ON THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT AND 850 MB VORTICITY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 20W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP WELL ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT AND 850 MB VORTICITY BUT WITH LESS AMPLITUDE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 38W-42W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 67W-70W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N15W 10N24W 7N30W 9N40W 7N50W 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 11W-15W. FURTHER S OVER THE E ATLANTIC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 13W-17W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO W CUBA AND THEN TO HONDURAS ALONG 31N80W 24N82W 20N90W 16N87W MOVING SLOWLY E. CONVECTION N OF 24N HAS DIMINISHED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS HOWEVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 80W-84W. 15-25 KT NWLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE ONLY 15-20 KT SLY WINDS ARE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE NW GULF HAS FAIR SKIES N OF 23N AND W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N90W PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF. A WEDGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FURTHER W...A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 19N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 75W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF CUBA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 79W-83W. FURTHER W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 85W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W. RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL E OF 88W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 MB HIGH IS NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N59W. A 1003 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 30N33W 21N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 32W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 25W-28W. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE RIDGE IS W OF 70W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N44W PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA