000 AXNT20 KNHC 210603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W...FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W...AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS...FROM LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ARE BLOWING OVER THE TOP OF THIS WAVE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA WAVE THAT WAS ANALYZED ALONG 78W AT 20/1800 UTC WAS DROPPED FROM THE 21/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N26W TO 10N42W AND 11N50W... TO 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 47W. OTHER PRECIPITATION NEAR THE ITCZ IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 51W/52W TROPICAL WAVE. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS SEPARATED. THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM T.S. KIKO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS THE SAME ONE THAT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOOTS TO THE NORTHEAST...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AS PART OF THE FLOW AROUND A LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N72W TO 28N79W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 28N79W AND CROSSES FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... TO 24N97W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 80.5W AND 81.5W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N70W 30N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM MEXICO TO 24N BETWEEN 94W AND LAND...AND EAST OF 29N84W-NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY CROSSING ON TOP OF WESTERN CUBA AND CONTINUING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT MOVED SOUTHWARD...AND NOW SOUTHWESTWARD... INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 24 HOURS AGO. ONE MAIN CYCLONIC CENTER EXISTED 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO...AND NOW AT LEAST A FEW CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE PRESENT. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST OF LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE EAST OF 77W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMED IN NORTHWESTERN COASTAL HONDURAS. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST FROM 19N TO 21N. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS FROM PRECIPITATION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER...FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM WESTERN CUBA ACROSS CUBA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 33N68W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 32N40W TO 26N55W BEYOND 20N61W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH 31N35W TO 25N44W TO 25N51W TO 23N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N60W 25N46W 27N38W BEYOND 32N33W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE STARTS IN THE AREA ON TOP OF THE 51W/52W TROPICAL WAVE...AND CURVES TO 22N38W AND BEYOND 32N31W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N10W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N18W TO 23N20W. $$ MT