000 AXNT20 KNHC 200607 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BLOWING ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS WAVE RIPPING APART THE TOPS OF ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CLOUDS. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF HAITI MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW BETWEEN 60W AND 77W IS MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 7N24W 8N45W 10N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 60 TO 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W IN SOUTHERN COASTAL MEXICO...AND FROM 17N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 95W IN MEXICO JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EVEN ARE REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS... ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT GOES FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 33N73W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF HAITI MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW BETWEEN 60W AND 77W IS MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE AREA BETWEEN 60W AND 75W...EVEN NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 20N TO CUBA BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W...EVERYTHING IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. ITCZ SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W NEAR COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA/PANAMA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N41W...AND A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W...AND NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE STARTS IN THE AREA ON TOP OF THE 46W/47W TROPICAL WAVE...AND CURVES TO 20N40W 26N38W AND BEYOND 32N32W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN NORTHERN MOROCCO/WESTERN ALGERIA... REACHING THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAURITANIA. $$ MT