000 AXNT20 KNHC 171108 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N36W TO 13N42W TO 8N47W. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE ARE BEING STRETCHED AND MOVED NORTHEASTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN A LARGE SWATH OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. IT IS NOT EASY AT ALL TO SEE ANY CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 21N IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS GUATEMALA INTO WESTERN EL SALVADOR...AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA ALONG THE BORDER FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ON TOP OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND THE PRECIPITATION THERE SIX HOURS AGO HAS DIMINISHED. ...THE ITCZ... 11N14W 6N37W 6N40W 5N47W 6N55W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 13W AND 14W...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 58W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N903W 24N92W AND FINALLY TO 19N96W. A WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED EVEN MORE. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...THAT IS AIDING THIS PRECIPITATION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 21N IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS GUATEMALA INTO WESTERN EL SALVADOR...AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA ALONG THE BORDER FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ON TOP OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND THE PRECIPITATION THERE SIX HOURS AGO HAS DIMINISHED. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK BASED ON THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS OF THE MAP. ONLY THE 1012 MB ISOBAR CUTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NEAR 10N58W JUST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. ANY PRECIPITATION IN BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC CENTERS IS BEING CAUSED BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW AS A RESULT OF THE TWO LARGE-SCALE WIND REGIMES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N72W TO 27N77W TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SEEN IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N60W TO ITS BASE NEAR 21N68W...AND THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT STILL IS NORTH OF THE AREA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N14W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 18N22W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 30W FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD TO 23N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 19N36W TO 13N42W TO 8N47W. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THE 39W TROPICAL WAVE ARE BEING STRETCHED AND MOVED NORTHEASTWARD $$ MT