000 AXNT20 KNHC 150455 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V-SHAPE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 24W-28W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 46W-49W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 19N WITH A 1006 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOT AS CLEARLY DEFINED AS A FEW HOURS AGO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 78W-85W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N19W 9N29W 7N36W 10N54W 10N63W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 24W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 12W-23W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 24N WITH THE AXIS ALONG 89W. UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE YUCATAN THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TO NEAR HAVANA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL E OF 87W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE GULF N OF 24N AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 92W. HOWEVER...A STRONG DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET OVER TEXAS IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO OVER E TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N95W TO OVER TEXAS BETWEEN GALVESTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI. OTHERWISE...SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PERSISTENT 1006 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR N BELIZE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ALONG THE N COAST OF W CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER HIGH IS W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 20N85W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N75W INTO THE W ATLC AND W ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-87W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 14N69W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING N THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE SW ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N FROM 70W TO THE E FLORIDA COAST COVERING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH DRY STABLE AIR N OF 24N W OF 74W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS N OF THE REGION EXTENDING AN STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N58W ALONG 28N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180/200 NM S OF THE FRONT W OF 70W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N75W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO 24N69W ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N51W COVERING THE AREA N OF 17N FROM 33W-63W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC EXTENDS S TO TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 26W WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF S PORTUGAL. A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 20N36W AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER HIGH TO NEAR 23N62W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 60W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. $$ WALLACE