000 AXNT20 KNHC 141036 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V-SHAPE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 20W-25W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-24W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CENTER BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOCATED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 76W-79W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 9N19W 10N26W 9N42W 11N55W 10N63W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 55W-61W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 49W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 28W-40W AND N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA FROM 3W-10W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES JUST E OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE GULF W OF 87W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN W ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST CLIPS THE FAR SE GULF GIVING PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER CUBA E OF 84W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 22N94W GENERATING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER DRY STABLE AIR THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PERSISTENT 1006 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE ACROSS CUBA TO JUST E OF HAVANA AND THOROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 20N81W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC AND SW OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR BELIZE PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-81W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 18N62W ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 63W-67W. LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 80W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH 31N76W TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W. AN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N58W ALONG 27N64W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 71W-78W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N W OF 78W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WITHIN 120/150 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W NE ALONG 25N63W THEN ENE TO BEYOND 32N47W THUS COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N W OF 36W. A RAPIDLY WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 26N30W TO NEAR 16N37W WITH A STRONG E/W UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OFF AFRICA TO 30W ALONG 12N. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N FROM 20W-55W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES. $$ WALLACE