000 AXNT20 KNHC 120459 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 30.0N 49.7W AT 12/0300 UTC MOVING E AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY TO THE E OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 46W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PROVIDE UPPER SHEAR...THEREFORE LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SAT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 63W-68W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N28W 7N44W 10N62W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9-N12N BETWEEN 17W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 25W-40W WITH SCATTERED CLUSTERS WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 40W-62W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 21N ANCHORED BY A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN TO W ATLC ONLY. DUE STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF N OF 22N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE FAR S GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS S MEXICO AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME REMNANT LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 88W-93W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PERSISTENT 1003 MB LOW REMAINS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND HAS DRIFTED W TO N GUATEMALA GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS S MEXICO ACROSS N BELIZE INTO THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUING NE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE CARIBBEAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION N OF 17N FROM 73W-80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI...E CUBA...AND ALL OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STREAMING N OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO JUST W OF BERMUDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH. DUE TO DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FILTERING E OFF THE COAST OF THE US IS LIMITING ANY SHOWERS IN THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO E OF BERMUDA TO BEYOND 32N62W WITH ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N75W TO NEAR 34N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W AND THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE E. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N52W S TO NEAR 25N54W. T.D. FIFTEEN IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. WEAK UPPER HIGH IS TO THE E NEAR 24N48W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N TO 33N44W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N19W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 17N35W. A SMALL SURFACE 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N19W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 16W-20W. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N33W. $$ WALLACE