000 AXNT20 KNHC 111759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 48W-53W. A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...DRIFTING E...IS W OF THE SURFACE CENTER NEAR 31N57W PRODUCING WLY SHEAR ON THE SURFACE CENTER AND IS IMPEDING SURFACE DEVELOPMENT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 59W-64W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N30W 9N50W 12N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 10W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 50W-59W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT NE FLOW. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 29N80W TO 28N82W MOVING E. NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE OVER THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF N OF 22N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF...WITH SHOWERS OR CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 17N91W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA AND CONTINUES TO THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 20N85W 23N80W. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS LOW...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 90W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 75W-82W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N78W. ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. A NEW SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N76W 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N70W TO THE BAHAMAS AND W CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 68W-75W. A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N31W. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N18W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO DIRECTLY ABOVE THIS SURFACE LOW. OTHER UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE...A TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 75W....A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-75W...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N57W...A RIDGE N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-60W...AND A TROUGH N OF 10N E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA