000 AXNT20 KNHC 111019 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK WAVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 57W-63W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A BROAD AREA OF SW FLOW AND WILL BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK IN THE COMING DAYS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 6N26W 7N44W 11N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 26W-57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 10W-26W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A LARGE UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA EXTENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER TAMPA TO 26N88W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH AT COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. DUE TO DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FILTERING S OVER THE GULF...THERE IS ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO IS REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER INTO THE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE FAR S GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. THUS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK 1006 MB LOW REMAINS INLAND OVER BELIZE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-19N W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER BELIZE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA COVERING THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 65W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N83W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST TO THE E. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC W OF 73W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DUE TO DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FILTERING E OFF THE COAST OF THE US ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 26N61W WITH ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 60W-77W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N57W S TO 27N60W WITH A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW TO THE E NEAR 29N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 49W-54W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 24N52W N TO BEYOND 32N47W REINFORCING THE UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N55W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N18W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THEN SW TO NEAR 11N38W. A SMALL SURFACE 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N16W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 16W-20W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM A HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N28W SW TO A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N41W TO NEAR 22N54W. $$ WALLACE