000 AXNT20 KNHC 060538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 49W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN ILL-DEFINED 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS WAVE REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SWIFT UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE E OF COMPLEX TROUGHING. THIS SHEAR HAS STAGGERED THE ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 360 NM. MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE TO THE N AND NE OF THE WAVE IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE. ...THE ITCZ... AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N20W 8N40W 9N48W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-37W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE AREA OF LOW PRES THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS NOW MOVED INLAND OVER SE TEXAS. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY HAS NOW DIMINISHED WITH DOPPLER RADAR ONLY DEPICTING A A FEW SHOWERS IN VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER. THE MORE ACTIVE AREA IS IN THE EXTREME SE GULF AND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. DOPPLER RADAR IN THIS AREA IS SHOWING A CONCENTRATION OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF THE STATE. SMALLER QUICK MOVING SHOWERS LIE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION S OF 29N E OF 84W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AN ATLC SFC TROUGH AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING RUNNING N-S ALONG 91W WITH WIDESPREAD STABLE SINKING AIR. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW LIES ABOVE CENTRAL MEXICO GENERATING TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE NW PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... COMPLEX ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN IS SET UP ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EARLY MORNING. ONE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE NRN TIP OF COLOMBIA TO WRN CUBA WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF A WEAK LOW ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIB. THE OTHER EXTENDS FROM N OF PUERTO RICO WWD ACROSS THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND THEN INTO THE FLA STRAITS. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BASIN EXTENDING SE FROM THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL GOMEX. THE FLOW IS WEAK IN THE ERN CARIB TO THE S OF AN UPPER LOW LOCATED N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS PRODUCING A LOT OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT VERY ABUNDANT AT THE MOMENT. IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THE STRONGEST CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OVER AND JUST S OF CUBA N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN THE S CARIB S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-73W POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE SAME SRN LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING MOST OF THE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WELL N OF THE AREA IN THE ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN TROUGH. MORE ON THIS IN THE ATLANTIC SECTION BELOW. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SIGNIFICANTLY INTERRUPTED ACROSS THE CARIB DUE TO THE PRESCIENCE OF THE SFC BOUNDARIES. THESE MAINLY LIGHT AND CHANGEABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ELONGATED TROUGH DOMINATES THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA. THE SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS EWD TO 19N63W. ONE VORTICITY MAX...LIKELY IN THE MID LEVELS IS OVER FLORIDA BUT THE MAIN SYSTEM IS MUCH FURTHER E JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N70W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-70W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ...AND FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS E-W TROUGHING AND HEALTHY RIDGING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS AND STEEP WIND WAVES/SWELL N OF 25N W OF 50W. FARTHER E IN THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC...A LARGE STRETCHED OUT SFC TROUGH...OLD FRONTAL ZONE...IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N17W 26N30W 27N48W 24N55W. THE COMBINATION OF SPEED CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...A TROPICAL WAVE TO ITS S ALONG 49W AND INSTABILITY ALOFT NEAR A TROUGH ALONG 53W/54W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 45W-52W. STRONG UPPER WLY WINDS E OF THE TROUGH IS SPREADING DEBRIS MOISTURE INTO THE E ATLC N OF 25N W OF 25W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS MUCH QUIETER...WITH STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER UPPER RIDGING AND A PAIR OF WEAK SFC HIGHS ANALYZED NEAR 30N33W AND 23N29W. $$ CANGIALOSI