000 AXNT20 KNHC 050619 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE CLOUD FIELDS IS SEEN IN A BROAD SENSE ON THE LATEST IR-IMAGERY ALONG 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 56W/57W AT 04/1800 UTC WAS OMITTED FROM THE ANALYSIS AT 05/0000 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N13W 8N22W 7N30W 9N42W 10N50W 10N54W 8N64W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N98W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 93W AND 105W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N89W BEYOND 31N86W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO CREATES A COL POINT SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N92W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND INLAND FROM 26N TO 29N. SOME AREAS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WEAKENING WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. ANY KIND OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. RESIDENTS IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING 25N67W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD SENDING THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W IS DUE TO AN ALREADY-EXISTING ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N80W. THIS IS THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAD SPENT AT LEAST THE LAST FEW DAYS COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...AND FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W...FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N80W TO 20N81W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W THAT HAD BEEN COVERED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS NOW FINDS ITSELF WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA NEAR 25N67W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 79W...TOUCHING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W...AND FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...AND FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N54W. THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N55W IS THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF MELISSA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 24.5N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. THE SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE 15N45W 34N40W RIDGE AND THE 24N54W CYCLONIC CENTER. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS... PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 26N30W TO 26N35W...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 26N35W AND CONTINUING TO 26N44W AND 27N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 15N45W 22N43W 27N43W TO 34N40W. THIS RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 46W/47W TROPICAL WAVE...AND IT PASSES OVER THE TOP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. $$ MT