000 AXNT20 KNHC 040621 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GULF OF MEXICO 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W. THIS IS A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE MOMENT. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A BIG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVEN PASSING OVER INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 13N100W. MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. A BIG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVEN PASSING OVER INTERIOR MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 13N100W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W... CROSSING CUBA TO 21N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA TO THE CUBA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 80W TO THE WESTERN HALF OF HAITI...FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 84W. THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG A 43W/44W TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS SOUTH OF 15N...AND MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W...AND FROM 15.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA ARE ABOUT 1070 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SIGNIFICANT RE-DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS IS A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 21.5N 48.5W. A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE WEST ALONG 28N59W 22N57W. A DEEP LAYER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W 29N46W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM 23N46W NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES FROM 16N49W TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 7N20W 7N26W 7N30W 10N41W 10N46W 10N52W 10N56W 10N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 46W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W... AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE BIG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER...INCLUDING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST NEAR 13N100W. A FEW CYCLONIC SWIRLS/CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPEARS ON THE TAFB DANGER GRAPHIC. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W... CROSSING CUBA TO 21N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA TO THE CUBA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 80W TO THE WESTERN HALF OF HAITI...FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 84W. THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO A TINY PART OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS MET BY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF IT...NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING NEAR 10N60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE RESTS ACROSS VENEZUELA NORTH OF 7N...AND IN PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W...CROSSING CUBA TO 21N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA TO THE CUBA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 80W TO THE WESTERN HALF OF HAITI...FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH GOES PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 29N46W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 30N34W TO 28N43W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W...AND FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ABOUT 240 NM TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 29W AND 49W...INCLUDING SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE REMNANT LOW OF MELISSA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N37W 18N36W TO 22N34W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS SPAIN/PORTUGAL/THE NORTHERN HALF OF MOROCCO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 17N41W 23N36W 26N31W BEYOND 32N26W. $$ MT