000 AXNT20 KNHC 032311 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF THE LOW ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 31N78W. CURRENTLY THE LOW IS CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 23N TO OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 85W-92W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 29N71W TO OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS A LARGE AREA E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N-28N W OF 61W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY BUT BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 10N42W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W WHICH IS ABOUT 1200 NM EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER A BROAD AREA FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 35W-46W AND ARE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N22W 9N39W 8N49W 8N61W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND MOVING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-12N. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 18W-23W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER ALONG 23N89W TO A SMALL UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. DRY SOMEWHAT STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE E AND W GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE A BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS CUBA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY S OF 26N E OF 83W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDS S DOMINATING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW WHERE THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA W OF 86W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 11N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 71W-83W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ENJOYING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W AND COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 62W AND EXTENDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SECOND SECTION OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS BENEATH THIS UPPER HIGH. THERE IS ENOUGH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...ALSO IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 29N...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N60W WITH AN WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO THE E EXTENDING ALONG 55W FROM 23N-30N AND IS GENERATING SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 50W-57W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N FROM 30W-47W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION ALONG 32N33W TO 28N45W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 28N53W WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXETNDS FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 50W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 11W/12N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 17N46W TO 29N32W. THE REMNANTS OF MELISSA ARE CENTERED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE NEAR 21N47W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOW AND COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N43W 23N47W TO 23N51W. $$ WALLACE