000 AXNT20 KNHC 031101 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W...AND FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES... CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. OTHER NEARBY PRECIPITATION JUST IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 9N13W IN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE TO 8N25W TO 9N35W 8N41W 8N49W 8N52W 8N62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 7W AND 30W...ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...AND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W... AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE BIG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER... INCLUDING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A FEW CYCLONIC SWIRLS/CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE LAST 24 TO 30 HOURS NOW IS DISSIPATING FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE 1006 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 24N87W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND 81W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING...FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. REMNANT SHOWERS GOING DOWN IN INTENSITY FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 MPH. RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING... FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W...UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD...AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY ALONG 70W NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 10N57W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EASILY APPARENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BRINGING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION EAST OF 70W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W... A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE REMNANT OF MELISSA NEAR 20N46W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 44W AND 54W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH GOES FROM 34N38W TO 30N43W TO A DEVELOPING 31N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 29N48W TO 29N56W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 29N56W TO 32N64W. ONE CELL OF SHOWERS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 32N30W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N37W 18N36W TO 22N34W. A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF SPAIN PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO TO 22N21W. $$ MT