000 AXNT20 KNHC 020006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP WELL IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND DERIVED SATELLITE PRODUCTS. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED NEAR THE WAVE...WITH ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION GENERALLY WITHIN 150NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE THIS EVENING...WITH DISORGANIZED AND VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 9N26W 9N43W 6N53W 10N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MOSTLY S OF THE AXIS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 21W-26W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W-43W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE GULF IS THE SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE PORTION AROUND THE FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF WRN CUBA. A WEAK SFC LOW IS ALSO NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TOWARDS THE SE GULF THROUGH TUE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS OF A SUBTROPICAL NATURE...IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SFC TROUGHING AND UPSLOPE NE FLOW. OTHERWISE THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH VERY DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR IN PLACE AND WIDESPREAD NLY FLOW. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT PERSISTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN PORTION BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS AND STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING SW FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG OFFSHORE NE FLOW OFFSHORE FLORIDA...WITH THE GRADIENT AND WINDS RELAXING THE FURTHER W YOU GO. CARIBBEAN SEA... QUITE A BIT OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE BASIN W OF 71W. THE MOST CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA N OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-75W...AND ALSO OVER THE SW PORTION S OF 14N BETWEEN 77W-85W. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY ISOLATED ELSEWHERE W OF 71W. THE SUPPORTING UPPER PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND AND UPPER HIGH OVER HAITI. BROAD SFC TROUGHING IS ALSO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF THE WEAK LOW OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. MUCH LESS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE WRN CARIB OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MESSY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE WRN ATLC...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 66W. THE UPPER PATTERN IS VERY DIFFLUENT OVER THIS AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND RIDGING EXTENDING N FROM HISPANIOLA TOWARDS BERMUDA. THE SUPPORTING SFC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N70W AND CONTINUING SW TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W. THIS LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES W TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY STRONG SFC PRES GRADIENT PERSIST OVER THE WRN ATLC BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH SEAS AT THE OUTER CANAVERAL BUOY 41010 RUNNING IN THE 15 FT RANGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE DANGEROUS WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WRN ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RELAX AND VEER THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS THE LOW NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS MOVES INTO THE GULF. THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE ATLC AREA CONSIST OF A PAIR OF EX-TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF KAREN...WHICH IS NOW A SFC TROUGH ANALYZED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 18N62W 23N56W. THIS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. FURTHER E...THE REMNANTS OF MELISSA IS NOW AN EXPOSED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 17N39W...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AT THE MOMENT. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW W OF SW EUROPE. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC MODEST RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC AREA...S OF A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 36N36W. $$ WILLIS