000 AXNT20 KNHC 011751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60-75 NM OF LINE FROM 9N23W TO 14N30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W OVER MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH NO SATELLITE SIGNATURE OR ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N21W 10N37W 7N54W 10N63W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA AND FROM 1N-12N BETWEEN 15W-43W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH N TO NE UPPER WINDS. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS ALL OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF WHERE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF A LINE FROM FT. MYERS FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE MOST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO E CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ACROSS W CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA JUST N OF BELIZE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL HONDURAS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N75W TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED NUMEROUS/ STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST TO 80W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N FROM 71W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 16N65W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N62W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 29N75W. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR BERMUDA SW OVER THE EXTREME N BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 130 NM N OF THIS BOUNDARY W OF 76W ACROSS ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS AND OVER SE FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W CONTINUING S ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR 31N64W WITH ENOUGH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN 67W-75W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING SW THROUGH 32N47W ALONG 24N56W THEN S INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N60W. THE REMNANTS OF KAREN IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER FEATURE EXTENDING FROM 22N57W TO NEAR BARBADOS. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 52W-61W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 24N E OF 30W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE NEAR 32N14W EXTENDING TO 29N22W THEN DISSIPATING TO NEAR 28N30W WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXETNDS FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 50W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 15N. THE WESTWARD UPPER FLOW IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SHEARING THE REMNANTS OF MELISSA CENTERED NEAR 17N37W WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. $$ WALLACE