000 AXNT20 KNHC 160609 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID AT 16/0300 UTC IS NEAR CENTERED 16.9N 55.7W...OR ABOUT 352 NM/650 KM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. INGRID IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 9 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 16.5N57W AND 17.5N 56.5W. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED -85C WITH THE TOPS AT 53000 FEET IN HEIGHT. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/38W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 37W ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N42.5W AND 8.5N 44.5W...AND 7N47W...IN THE ITCZ. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE NORTH OF 14N. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 10N17W 12N32W 12N37W 11N39W 8N45W 8N48W...TO THE COAST OF GUYANA/VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W... AND TO 9N64W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W...AND FROM 3.5N TO 5N BETWEEN 37W AND 38.5W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N42.5W AND 8.5N 44.5W...AND 7N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 25W AND 45W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALREADY HAS CROSSED THE U.S.A. AND IT HAS REACHED THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N79W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING BEHIND THIS FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N93W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 28N83W 26N90W 25N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN ONE CLUSTER OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND ALSO ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 65W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR HAITI/THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 81W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 83W NEAR WESTERN CUBA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FINDS ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 21N93W CYCLONIC CENTER. CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FLOW MEETS THE ONRUSHING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THE HAITI MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TOWARD NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MERGES WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HAITI CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N57W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 21N TO 33N BETWEEN 49W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N37W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE 1017 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N37W AND 27N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N42W 28N37W 30N34W...AND FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 29W AND 37W. $$ MT