000 AXNT20 KNHC 080012 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 30N71W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N74W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE SURFACE CENTER NEAR 29N75W PRODUCING SHEAR. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM HAS NOT YET FOUND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT ANY TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U. S. SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 67W-70W...AND FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 72W-75W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE COVERS A BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUD ENVELOPE FROM 6N-20N BETWEEN 20W-30W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED N OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 23W-26W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A PATCH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 47W-54W. A SEPARATE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N44W...NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF PANAMA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 80W-82W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N30W 9N50W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 13W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 25W-37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 44W-48W. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N94W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N87W 22N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF W CUBA FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 84W-90W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 90W-95W. FURTHER S...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 88W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR 33N97W PRODUCING NELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREAS OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. PRESENTLY CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS HAS CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 83W-93W. E CUBA HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 75W-79W. A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 75W-79W. FURTHER E...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 12N AND E OF 80W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER CUBA...THE W CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N71W. SEE ABOVE. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N60W. THE E ATLANTIC HAS A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N30W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N75W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N43W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-35W. $$ FORMOSA