000 AXNT20 KNHC 070501 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1011 MB LOW LOCATED ABOUT 375 NM SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 28N70W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N77W. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 63W-70W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE W OF THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SURFACE LO9W REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS CLOUD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE LOW WILL START TO MOVE TOWARD THE NW AND A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 19W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 8N-18N BETWEEN 14W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 20W-23W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-18N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 23N43W ALONG 14N46W TO 6N46W MOVING W 10-15 KT. VERY BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS COVERING THE AREA S OF 25N FROM 37W-52W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 44W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CARIBBEAN MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND LIMITING ANY SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N25W 8N42W 10N62W. A VERY WEAK NEAR STATIONARY 1014 MB LOW IS NEAR 14N42W AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SMALL LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-26W AND FROM 3N-8N FROM 37W-43W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 26W-37W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E TEXAS SE TO W CUBA NEAR 23N83W COVERING THE GULF. THE REMNANTS OF FELIX ARE JUST INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W AND CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 93W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF COUPLED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS OVER FLORIDA CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM THE N GULF COAST NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/ MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO 25N86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W WITH A REMNANT THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE CUBA COAST NEAR 21N82W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E PANAMA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N79W TO 17N85W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE COVERING THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N FROM 69W-77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI AND THE GULF OF GONAVE. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W IS GIVING THAT AREA CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 21N FROM 68W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A WEAKENING EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N73W AND THE ASSOCIATED 1011 MB LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N53W COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N FROM 35W-68W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE E ATLC N OF 26N E OF 35W TO OVER NW AFRICA. A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR NEAR 15N56W AND COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N FROM 51W TO JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY EASTERLY UPPER FLOW. ALL THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE RATHER BENIGN COUPLED WITH THE ABUNDANCE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N53W AND A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 26N31W ARE GIVING THE MUCH OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. $$ WALLACE