000 AXNT20 KNHC 070002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A NON-TROPICAL 1009 MB LOW ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AT 28N70W REMAINS DISORGANIZED. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N76W. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY AT THIS TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 17W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS GOOD WWD CONTINUITY OVER THE CONTINENT WHEN LOOKING AT MET-9 SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 14W-19W. LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N NOT PRODUCING MUCH WEATHER. THE WAVE ITSELF REMAINS VERY WELL DEFINED WITH A LARGE AREA OF PRONOUNCED TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED LIKELY SUPPRESSED BY THE DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IT IS EMBEDDED IN. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. THERE IS SOME CLOUDINESS NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE BUT THIS IS LIKELY MORE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE REGION. FURTHER S... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 73W-76W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N25W 11N50W 10N63W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 17W-28W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N94W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 91W-96W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE E GULF...S FLORIDA...AND W CUBA FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 80W-87W. FURTHER S... INLAND YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND S MEXICO HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 88W-97W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF FELIX. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SURROUNDING LAND MASSES W OF 83W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF FELIX...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N93W. CONVECTION REMAINS N OF THE LOW CENTER. FURTHER S...CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS HAS CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 83W-89W. CUBA HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 75W-85W. FURTHER E... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W MOVING W. THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N70W. SEE ABOVE. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N46W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N73W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N54W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER S OVER THE TROPICS CENTERED NEAR 15N54W MOVING W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 10W-30W. $$ FORMOSA