000 AXNT20 KNHC 052339 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED SEP 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 320 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N70W...ANALYZED 1008 MB...HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY STRETCHED OUT TO THE NE OF THE LOW FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 66W-69W AND ALONG THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY...AND A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... LONG WAVELENGTH TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE SINCE MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WITH ABOUT A 15 DEG LONGITUDE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THIS WAVE IS IMPRESSIVELY LARGE AND WELL DEFINED...DEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ. THE WEAK 1012 MB LOW THAT WAS ALONG 40W YESTERDAY HAS MOVED E TO 12N37W AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED PART OF THE WAVE AXIS. LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 69W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 63W-69W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND VENEZUELA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THE REMNANTS OF FELIX ARE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE AND EASTERN GUATEMALA NEAR 16N89W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THAT COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RE-DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 13N35W 10N50W 8N55W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 13W-16W. FURTHER S... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 12W-21W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 92W-96W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE SE GULF...S FLORIDA...AND W CUBA FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 80W-85W. FURTHER S... INLAND YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 88W-92W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF FELIX. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SW GULF...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE E GULF...AND S FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF FELIX ARE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE AND EASTERN GUATEMALA NEAR 16N89W. SEE ABOVE. THE W CARIBBEAN HAS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 78W-84W. FURTHER E... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM FELIX IS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 84W-92W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N70W MOVING W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W MOSTLY DUE TO FELIX. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W. SEE ABOVE. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N41W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N58W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER S OVER THE TROPICS CENTERED NEAR 15N50W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 10W-30W. $$ FORMOSA