000 AXNT20 KNHC 050459 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FELIX IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 85.7W OR ABOUT 87 NM E OF TEGUCIGALPA AT 05/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FELIX MADE LANDFALL EARLY ON TUESDAY OVER NICARAGUA AND CONTINUES A WESTWARD TRACK. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAVE BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND COULD PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 78W-91W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS IN THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N73W AT 05/0300 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 32N70W. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE E FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 69W-73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N-28N AND WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE TROUGH FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE FLORIDA COAST. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA S OF 23N FROM 27W-42W OVERTAKING THE 1013 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 28W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND LIMITING ANY SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE THE E PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER TWDEP FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 15N27W 7N50W 8N61W. A NEAR STATIONARY WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N40W AND CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 18W-40W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE W GULF W OF 94W. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N90W DRAWING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE T.S. FELIX INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF AND N FLORIDA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA S OF 27N TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. FELIX IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FELIX COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 13N66W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 12N FROM 61W-64W. DRY STABLE AIR IS COVERS REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN BROUGHT IN BY THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N75W SW 24N78W WITH THE ASSOCIATED 1007 MB LOW AND SURFACE TROUGHS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 57W AND CENTERED NEAR 26N64W. AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N55W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 23N58W TO 28N51W AND DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING N WITHIN 150 NM TO BEYOND 32N48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 45W CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 24W/25W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA AND A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N35W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE ATLC. $$ WALLACE