000 AXNT20 KNHC 040607 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE FELIX IS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 81.9W OR ABOUT 87 NM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS AT 04/0600 UTC...MOVING W AT 15 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT MAKING FELIX A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. FELIX IS APPROACHING THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS WITH TROPICAL STORM WINDS ALREADY REACHING THE COAST. OUTER RAINBANDS OF HEAVY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY REACHED NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN A FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS N NICARAGUA AND MUCH OF HONDURAS WITH POSSIBLE AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 115 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OFF THE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST CENTERED NEAR 30N77W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS S FLORIDA TO NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY DOES SHOW ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ONLY DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. IT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 71W-78W AND WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 27N. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD REGION OF LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH A VERY SMALL LOW LEVEL CENTER. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE HAS A CLASSIC BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 52W-65W. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE REGION THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 55W-63W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 94W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N16W 14N25W 11N37W 10N45W 10N63W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 27W-46W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER COVERING THE W GULF W OF 92W. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N87W COVERING THE E GULF INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W/91W. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO PRODUCING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW GULF TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS/LOUISIANA AND MEXICO WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF THE ALABAMA TO THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE FELIX IS THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA MAKING LANDFALL LATER THIS MORNING. FOR MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. OUTER RAINBANDS FROM FELIX COVER A BROAD AREA COVERING THE AREA S OF 19N FROM 75W-86W. UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FELIX IS PRODUCING GOOD OUTFLOW OVER FELIX IN ALL QUADRANTS FROM 74W-87W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION FROM ACROSS COLOMBIA TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BEING DRAWN TOWARD FELIX. NE UPPER WINDS COVER MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO NEAR 20N56W. DRY STABLE AIR IS FILTERING IN THE WAKE OF FELIX OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70E. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 33N77W SW TO NE FLORIDA S OF JACKSONVILLE. THE 1011 MB LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE IS ASSOCIATED. AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 58W. AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N50W TO NEAR 22N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA N OF 25N FROM 50W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 50W CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 23W/24W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 32N27W WSW TO 26N50W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC. $$ WALLACE