000 AXNT20 KNHC 031202 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE FELIX IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 76.9W OR ABOUT 225 NM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AT 03/1200 UTC...MOVING W AT 18 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. FELIX CONTINUES ON A W PATH STEERED BY A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FELIX CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE AND BROAD OUTFLOW MOSTLY TO THE N OF THE HURRICANE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 105 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 1012 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 11N40W MOVING GENERALLY SW NEAR 5 KT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DISPLACED W OF THE LOW FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 41W-44W. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD REGION OF LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY VERY LIMITED. TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED ALONG 55W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE HAS A CLASSIC BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SEVERELY LIMITED DUE TO THE DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS TILTED FROM 22N87W SE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N86W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE W AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 84W TO OVER THE YUCATAN WITH THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER BELIZE AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N16W 42N23W 11N30W 12N38W 10N45W 10N63W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1012 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 52W-60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N E OF 21W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 21W-34W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1015 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA NE COAST ACROSS N FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN NE TO OVER S MISSISSIPPI TO E TEXAS DELINEATED BY A WIND SHIFT. THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER NE MEXICO TO SW LOUISIANA COVERING THE W GULF. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER N FLORIDA COVERING THE FAR E GULF INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W GULF TO GENERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N-26N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION PUSHING N INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N FROM 94W-96W AS A RESULT OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER S MEXICO AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FELIX IS THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 87W AND AN INVERTED MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE PRODUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ABOVE. UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FELIX IS PRODUCING GOOD OUTFLOW OVER FELIX FROM 68W-82W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA. DRY STABLE AIR IS FILTERING IN THE WAKE OF FELIX OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 63W-67W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SMALL UPPER LOW IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA... AND CUBA NEAR 24N80W PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N AND CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOSTLY N OF THE REGION IS DRAPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N54W SW ALONG 27N62W TO 28N68W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY ALONG 32N76W TO THE WEAK 1015 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30.5N79.5W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FORM THE LOW TO OVER S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 63W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY W OF 69W...AND W OF A LINE FROM 31N74W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 25N67W. A NARROW AND ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 28N52W TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 45W CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 23W/24W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 32N28W ALONG 25N43W TO THE 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC. $$ WALLACE