000 AXNT20 KNHC 021211 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 2 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... FELIX STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS ITS CENTER PASSES JUST NORTH OF BONAIRE. AT 02/1200 UTC IT WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 69.3W MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 984 MB DURING THE LAST EYE PENETRATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. FELIX CONTINUES ON A PATH JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OR 275/16...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD...PREVENTING FELIX FROM GAINING ANY SIGNIFICANT LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF CENTER. THE EYE OF FELIX IS WELL DEFINED IN THE DUTCH ANTILLES RADAR. BONAIRE HAS BEEN REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 20 KT AND HEAVY SHOWERS AT TIMES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38W...OR ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD LATER TODAY. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 38W-43W...DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE EXPOSED CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF ELY SHEAR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 20W S OF 18N ON THE 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. 850 MB MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE CIMSS VORTICITY PRODUCT DEPICT A VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THIS AREA. THE VERTICAL SOUNDING FROM DAKAR SHOWED THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WITH SE WINDS AT LOW LEVELS. A SFC LOW COULD BE ADDED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS THIS MORNING AS THE VIS IMAGERY COMES IN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OUT OF THE AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN 15N-20N...WHILE A BAND OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG 11N BETWEEN 21W-29W. THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 81W WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLASSIC INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE CLOUD FIELD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE IS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...E OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO BORDER ALONG 91W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE...COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 10N30W 11N35W 8N50W 11N21W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY S OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 22W-40W...AND WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 22W-28W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/LOW SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR WEST GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WEST OF 92W BUT PARTICULARLY JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY VERY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF/CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH W/CENTRAL TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST WITH A 1014 MB SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 30N85W. A MOSAIC RADAR LOOP OVER THE SE U.S. SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AS WELL AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF...THE MID/LOWER TEXAS COAST...AND JUST OFF THE SE U.S. NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE FELIX REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CURRENTLY...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ABC ISLANDS AND JAMAICA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...OVER THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO. FOR MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE ALONG 81W. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...OUTER RAINBANDS OF FELIX ARE REACHING THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. MID TO UPPER RIDGING N OF FELIX IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND W STEERING FELIX TO THE W OR WNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE CARIB SEA. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A WEAK SFC TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N61W THEN CONTINUES TO 28M68W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N44W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PRODUCING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE AREA E OF 55W. LIGHT WINDS ARE ALSO FOUND OVER MOST OF THE REGION W OF 55W AROUND A RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY ALONG 26N...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER ELY WINDS CLOSER TO THE CARIBBEAN S OF 22N BETWEEN 60W-73W IN RESPONSE TO THE GRADIENT N OF FELIX. ALOFT...AN UPPER HIGH/TROUGH/HIGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 26N67W COVERING THE WESTERN ATLC. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 26N53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS RELATIVELY QUIET DOMINATED BY A STRONG MID TO UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N30W. STRONG E TO SE FLOW ON THE SW SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS SHEARING THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE E ATLC. $$ GR