000 AXNT20 KNHC 020005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE FELIX WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 66.0W AT 02/0000 UTC...OR ABOUT 135 NM ENE OF BONAIR AND ABOUT 235 NM E OF ARUBA...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. FELIX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A W OR WNW TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS S OF RIDGING. WITH THE WARM CARIBBEAN SEA AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF DEAN IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SCATTERED MODERATE IN OUTER RAINBANDS IS ELSEWHERE FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 59W-71W. THE CENTER OF FELIX IS NOW EVIDENT IN THE DUTCH ANTILLES RADAR. FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W...MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES...S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N36W. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 37W-41W...DISPLACED TO THE W OF THE EXPOSED CENTER WITH ABOUT 20 KT OF ELY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 23N80W TO THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER NEAR 8N77W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS AN ELONGATED ZONE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING MOVING INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOCUSED FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 76W-83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN ADDITION TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING IN THE AVAILABLE DATA. LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS ANALYZED FEATURE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 14N35W 8N39W 11N59W. BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 19W-33W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/LOW SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE WEAK PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 1018 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 26N90W...A TROUGH IN THE WRN PORTION EXTENDING S FROM OFFSHORE CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR 27N95W TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W...AND A STATIONARY FRONT HUNG UP ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST. THE TROUGH IN THE W/SW GULF IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 28N W OF 92W...AND IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY VERY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH W/CENTRAL TEXAS. A MOSAIC RADAR LOOP OVER THE SE U.S. SHOWS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WELL...WITH QUITE A FEW CELLS MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND NE FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON HURRICANE FELIX MOVING ACROSS THE SE CARIB. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. FOR MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE S/SW OF JAMAICA...REFER TO THAT SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CUBA...HAITI...AND A PORTION OF THE NW CARIB ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGHING IN THE REGION. MID TO UPPER RIDGING N OF FELIX IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND W STEERING FELIX TO THE W OR WNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE CARIB SEA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXIST N OF 27N W OF 77W THROUGH N FLORIDA/SE GEORGIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING TRIGGERED BY INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE WRN ATLC EXTENDING W THROUGH THE NRN GULF COAST...WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N77W AND CONTINUES WSW TO THE SE GEORGIA COAST. SIMILAR SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST N OF 26N BETWEEN 60W-68W. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY PREFRONTAL TROUGHING JUST N OF THE AREA IN ADDITION TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH NEAR 28N68W. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 28N53W...AND THE LAST FEW VIS PICTURES THIS EVENING SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK SFC TROUGHING IN THIS VICINITY AS WELL. THESE FEATURES ONLY APPEAR TO BE GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 52W-59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS RELATIVELY QUIET DOMINATED BY A STRONG MID TO UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N30W. STRONG E TO SE FLOW ON THE SW SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS SHEARING THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE E ATLC. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...FAIRLY WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N48W. THIS IS PRODUCING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE AREA E OF 55W. LIGHT WINDS ARE ALSO FOUND OVER MOST OF THE REGION W OF 55W AROUND A RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY ALONG 26N...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER ELY WINDS CLOSER TO THE CARIBBEAN S OF 22N BETWEEN 60W-73W IN RESPONSE TO THE GRADIENT N OF FELIX. $$ WILLIS