000 AXNT20 KNHC 010009 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 59.3W AT 01/0000 UTC OR 65 NM SOUTH OF BARBADOS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KT. MEASURED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS OF 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE WELL-DEFINED WAVE THAT HAD BEEN TRACKED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT INNER CORE CONVECTION AND SURFACE CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. PERHAPS THE CYCLONE MOVED FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE INHIBITING INFLUENCES OF THE DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAL. BANDING FEATURES ARE BEGINNING TO FORM AND GIVEN THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS LIGHT AND WATERS ARE WARM...CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED TO OCCUR. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONVECTION IS WIDESPREAD ASSOCIATED WITH TD SIX FROM 10-14N BETWEEN 58-64W...WHICH IS ASYMMETRICALLY DISTRIBUTED MAINLY WEST OF THE CYCLONE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 21N MOVING W AT ABOUT 12 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. THE WAVE AND LOW ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND 850 MB FROM WEST AFRICA OUT TO 40W BETWEEN 5 AND 15N. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE LATITUDE OF THE LOW CENTER EXTENDING TO THE WEST FROM ABOUT 150 NMI. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THOUGH THERE MAY STILL EXIST A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR 12N81W. IT IS NOTED THAT THE CIMSS VORTICITY PRODUCT DOES PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR THE WAVE POSITION INDICATED. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE IS OVER LAND IN PANAMA... COSTA RICA AND CUBA...AS THE WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING THE NORMAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. THE CIMSS VORTICITY PRODUCT AND THE GFS HINT THAT A SEPARATE WAVE MAY BE ALONG 71W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 14N28W 14N33W 9N37W 11N57W 9N82W. IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 8-15N BETWEEN 13W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 42W-54W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INLAND INTO MEXICO ALONG 18N98W AND 22N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 18-25N BETWEEN 94-98W. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO 28N86W. ISOLATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NMI SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH AND ARE MOVING INTO PENINSULA FLORIDA NEAR AND NORTH OF TAMPA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OF 1017 MB IS AT 26N91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF W OF 93W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF 87W-93W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONNECTED TO A HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER CROSSES FLORIDA ALONG 28W WESTWARD TO 87W. HIGH IS CENTERED N FLORIDA NEAR NEAR 30N82W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 13-20N BETWEEN 70-77W INCLUDING OVER THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N81W...THOUGH IT MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONVECTION. A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA 58W-70W. EXPECT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW AT 38N70W SSW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 31N42W TO 30N49W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND E OF 35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL NEAR 20N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 31N53W TO 22N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF 35W. $$ LANDSEA