000 AXNT20 KNHC 301647 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007 ...CORRECTED TIME IN HEADER... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12.5N. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 26W-33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 29W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 17W MOVING W 10 KT WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 45W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 8N46W TO 13N54W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 23N MOVING W 10 KT. NARROW INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS WEAK IN THE CARIBBEAN AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE RATHER DRY STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HAITI FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 73W-75W AND OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 70W-73W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W S OF 23N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN UPPER HIGH IS JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS ENHANCING CONVECTION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N FROM 91W-97W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 13N27W 9N36W 11N52W 10N63W. IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-13W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 33W-40W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER NE MEXICO ACROSS E TEXAS TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE W GULF W OF 95W. AN UPPER HIGH JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W/93W NEAR 20N90W EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC JUST COVERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N FROM 85W-93W WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE BIG BEND AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 14N FROM 72W-83W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W. WEAK UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N E OF 72W. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W BROUGHT IN ON MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 72W TO JUST OVER FLORIDA AND S INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR 28N73W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W TO JUST N OF A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N76W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W. A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING NEAR 31N75W. ALL THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 65W-80W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N59W TO JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W WITH YET A THIRD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N38W TO 18N46W. AN UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N55W AND AND A SECOND IN THE SE ATLC NEAR 23N26W. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 60W AND COUPLED WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC E OF 70W GIVES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. $$ WALLACE