000 AXNT20 KNHC 291751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 27W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 17W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOTED. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 42W-49W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 25N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN WAVE APEX. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 67W-70W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 87W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 85W-87W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N15W 13N25W 11N30W 10N40W 9N50W 8N60W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 25W-33W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LINGERS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N AND W OF 94W. E TO SE WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N90W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 21N85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS MOSTLY DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT WITH SOME 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 77W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N AND E OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-17N E OF 82W. EXPECT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 MB LOW IS OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 31N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 71W-77W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 33N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N35W 29N38W 27N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N63W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 23N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF 35W. $$ FORMOSA