000 AXNT20 KNHC 281744 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA ALONG 18W S OF 22N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...DAKAR UPPER SOUNDING ...HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM...AND THE SSMI/AMSRE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 14W-25W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 16W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 38W-44W. FURTHER N...AN AREA OF DRY AIR/ AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE N OF 15N TO 20N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE IS SEEN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN APEX OF THE WAVE...OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 72W-67W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS ALONG THE WAVE OVER EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 81W-86W. TROPICAL WAVE IS REPOSITIONED TO 94W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP REPORTS. CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE OVER THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N29W 7N46W 8N60W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 26W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 26W-52W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 23N AND W OF 90W. SE TO S WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE ARE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER NW GULF NEAR 27N95W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS INLAND OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF W OF 84W. EXPECT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT WITH SOME 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 19N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N71W. EXPECT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 29N60W 25N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1020 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 27N54W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N37W 26N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N63W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 22N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF 30W. $$ FORMOSA