000 AXNT20 KNHC 272348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 36W S OF 17W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1012 MB LOW IS FOUND ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10.5N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 32W-42W. FURTHER N...AN AREA OF DRY AIR/AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE N OF 15N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WEAK INVERTED-V PATTERN IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHILE A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS NOTED BETWEEN BARBADOS AND TRINIDAD. MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TOMORROW... BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 20N. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WILL BE INTERACTING WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THUS SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS EXHIBITING CYCLONIC TURNING IS LOCATED NEAR 13N81W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST N OF THIS SWIRL. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 94W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N25W 10N35W 7N45W 8N60W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 10W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF AXIS 19W AND 26W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF TAMPICO YESTERDAY EVENING MADE LANDFALL OVER NE MEXICO THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SAME AREA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 94W. SEE ABOVE. A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE LIGHT IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHILE ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE SE U.S..IN BETWEEN...THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS THROUGH LOUISIANA AND THE CENTRAL GULF. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ANOTHER IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. TRADEWINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT WITH SOME 20 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT WWD REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW EVENING. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE WESTERN GULF AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTION HAS ALSO FLARED UP OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE SE U.S. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE OUT OF THE REGION. A TUTT LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 27N62W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. AN UPPER HIGH SURROUNDING BY DRY AIR/STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N50W. THIS UPPER HIGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE RIDDING EXTENDING E FROM WEST AFRICA. A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS WELL N OF THE REGION SUPPORTING A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N51W THEN CONTINUES ALONG 28N44W 30N53W TO A WEAK 1015 MB LOW NEAR 28N61N. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAINLY NEAR THE SFC LOW. A 1022 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 26N51W. A WEAK RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FORECAST AREA PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS. $$ GR