000 AXNT20 KNHC 271031 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 16W MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE JUST N OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF THE WAVE TO 30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-13N W OF THE WAVE TO 40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LOW LEVEL SWIRL REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE NEAR 12N58W AT 27/0915 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS OF THE LOW LEVEL SWIRL. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LOW/MID LEVEL LOW ROTATION IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE NEAR 12N77.5W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE E OF THE WAVE NEAR 14N68W BUT THERE NO INDICATION OF A SURFACE LOW. THIS COMBINATION IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 71W-79W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N24W 11N34W 9N38W 7N47W 8N56W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 7N25W 5N32W 7N41W...FROM 7N-13N E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA...AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 44W-51W. DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAIN FEATURE THIS MORNING IN THE GULF IS A WEAK 1009 MB LOW JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO NEAR 28N93W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW. A BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE W GULF S OF 29N W OF 88W GENERATING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH W TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 87W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N FROM THE FLORIDA W COAST TO 89W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W COVERING THE AREA 13N-23N BETWEEN 78W-87W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 80W-86W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N68W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE IS A LOW/MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 12N77.5W. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W/74W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER HIGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE OUT OF THE REGION. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 27N59W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH W INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE 1016 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 21N70W. A DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS WELL N OF THE REGION EXTENDING A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N35W ALONG 28N44W 29N55W TO THE 1016 MB SURFACE LOW ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND DOTTING THE W ATLC N OF 24N FROM 64W-72W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N48W AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC COUPLED WITH DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE AREA E OF 55W GIVES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. $$ WALLACE